"Every why hath a wherefore." - Comedy of Errors, Act 2, Scene 2

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

I'm all about the politics

Wow. The Democrats have decided to work together.

More from CBS news: Can Bush survive Iraq?

Bush's advantages in the race vs. Kerry's. Since that's from The Note at ABCnews and will presumably be gone tomorrow, I will quote.

Bush's advantages:
1. The war on terror serving as a potential trump issue, a la the communist threat during the Cold War.
2. Incumbency in a time of national crisis will seem safe(r) to a lot of voters.
3. The sustaining value of the "Bush brand" (highlighted again this month with 41@80).
4. The likeability and accessibility stops haven't even been pulled out yet.
5. Laura Bush.
6. An improving economy and seemingly successful POTUS projection of "if even one American is looking for work, that's too many" caring.
7. The rise of the Republican 527s.
8. Candidate confidence and rapid response confidence.
9. The political press' general belief the Kerry probably won't win, and inclination to scrutinize the Kerry "record" more than the Bush "record."
10. Most imaginable October Surprises favor the President.
11. The skew of the Electoral College.
Kerry's advantages:
1. An energized base which (we are now ready to say) viscerally dislikes President Bush as much as the right disliked Clinton. (Although no accusations of domestic murders yet . . .)
2. Stew of wrong track, events in Iraq, gas prices, and other only semi-controllable factors.
3. Famous capacity to close strong.
4. Potential week or more of positive coverage if he picks a good running mate.
5. Don't forget health care.
6. The regularity of the circularity of history (one-term Bush presidencies featuring a war victory in Iraq, stratospheric poll ratings, and, then, decline . . . ).
7. The head start of the Democrat 527s.
8. Unchallenged in key Blue States such as California, Illinois, and New York.
9. Daughters, stepsons, vets unveiled big time in Boston.
10. In what would be a Bush irony (and The Note tries exceedingly hard not to misuse the term), the President's team's apparent* belief that Kerry is a phony, liberal, hypocritical Francophile might just blind them so much to his appeal to voters that they (mis)underestimate him all the way through November, and never take him seriously enough to stop him.
11. The political press' general preference for (a) underdogs; (b) challengers; (c) change; (d) Democrats; (e) good stories.


Sounds about right to me, although I'm not sure what all that adds up to.

(Incidentally, I have no idea what a 41@80 is, but I do know what a 527 is, I think - it's organizations like MoveOn.org.)

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